Lahaina, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

689
FXHW60 PHFO 290123
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
323 PM HST Sun Jun 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist through the
rest of the week. Bands of low clouds and showers will
periodically push across the islands, focusing primarily over
windward and mauka areas during the overnight and early morning
hours. A couple bands of enhanced moisture will move through the
islands tonight through Thursday morning, bringing an increase in
shower coverage and intensity, with some locally heavy rainfall
possible. In addition, humidity levels will rise, bringing muggier
conditions across the island chain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With a subtropical high persisting far to the northeast, moderate
to locally breezy trade winds will continue throughout the week,
ushering in periods of showers mainly to windward and mauka areas.
The main focus for this forecast remains on potential upticks in
windward and mauka showers from this evening into Monday, and
again from late Tuesday into Thursday.

Looking at this afternoons satellite imagery, the leading edge
of a moisture plume associated with a weak surface trough is
visible just east of the Big Island. As this feature progresses
westward, it will bring an uptick in windward showers to the Big
Island and Maui later this afternoon, before spreading across the
rest of the island chain through Monday. Some of these showers
may be heavy at times, potentially leading to isolated minor
flooding concerns for windward and mauka areas tonight into
Monday. However, high-resolution model guidance does not currently
highlight a strong potential for heavy rain as this feature
passes through.

The next feature visible further upstream on satellite is a
broader surface trough located about 800 miles east of the state.
Stronger convection and deeper moisture make this feature look
more impressive than the weak trough on the Big Islands doorstep
this afternoon. This broader trough is expected to move through
from Tuesday night through Thursday on the trade wind flow,
bringing another uptick in windward and mauka showers. At the same
time, deeper high-level clouds are expected to move over the
state, which could potentially hinder shower enhancement by
suppressing diurnal heating. Even so, some of these showers may be
heavy at times, once again potentially leading to isolated minor
flooding concerns for windward and mauka areas.

Aside from these periodic upticks in windward and mauka showers,
dew points will creep up to near or slightly above 70 degrees in
many locations starting tonight and persisting through much of
next week, bringing muggier conditions across the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trades are expected through Monday.
Low clouds and scattered showers will move over primarily windward
and mauka areas, resulting in occasional MVFR conditions.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

A small area of low pressure is approaching Big Island from the
east this afternoon and may increase shower coverage and strength
from roughly 10 PM to 2 AM HST.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of
terrain due to breezy trade winds and will continue through the
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands will
remain anchored in place, keeping trade winds blowing across the
region through much of this week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
has been extended through Monday, with additional areas impacted
including windward waters of Oahu, Maui County and Big Island, as
well as the Kaiwi Channel. This is due to brief boost in wind
speeds expected to move in tonight into Monday.

The current long period south swell will maintain through Monday
then gradually decline over the next few days. Another larger
south swell energy pulse will arrive next weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through
the week. Surf heights along north facing shores will remain
nearly flat.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County
Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...Parker
MARINE...Foster