Lahaina, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

322
FXHW60 PHFO 301954
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
954 AM HST Sun Mar 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and stable conditions will persist today, with light
east to southeast winds continuing. Showers will remain limited,
generally favoring windward and southeast-facing slopes overnight
through the early morning hours and interior and leeward areas in
the afternoon where sea breezes form. Rain chances will steadily
increase through the week as southerly winds associated with a
cold front and upper disturbance draw moisture northward into the
islands. This front may reach the islands later in the week,
potentially leading to more widespread rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A nearly stationary, deep low pressure system is centered around
1100 miles northwest of Kauai today. A jet stream along the
eastern flank of this system will bring cirrus clouds over much of
the state, particularly the western half today into Monday. At the
surface, a weak high is located about 2000 miles to the east, with
a long ridge axis that passes just north of Hawaii. Stable,
mostly dry weather with gentle to locally moderate southeast
winds will be the result of the ridge to the east. Winds will be
light or blocked enough for localized sea breezes to set in and
may bring interior clouds and isolated showers this afternoon,
followed by clearing (of any low clouds) tonight. Vog will carry
up from the Big Island to the smaller islands over the next
several days.

Monday and Tuesday will be a similar as the low pressure system
and cold front begins to move closer to the islands. Southeasterlies
will strengthen and bring increased moisture initially over the
western end of the state. As a result, rain chances will steadily
rise through the first half of the week.

Forecast confidence decreases heading into the latter half of the
week due to differences among the model and ensemble solutions.
However, there is general agreement that the aforementioned deep
moisture axis and front will reach the islands. Combined with
broad upper-level troughing and instability, this will lead to an
evolving wet pattern, which could become more widespread by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Southeast flow will prevail today and allow for sea breeze
development along with some isol SHRA and MVFR conds along
interior leeward portions. VFR conds expected to prevail.

All locations can expect to see some VOG with the degassing of
Kilauea. It is not impacting vsbys enough to be put into any of the
TAFs but was worth mentioning for general awareness.

No AIRMETs in effect.


&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds with local land/sea breezes will hold
over the western islands today, while light to moderate east-
southeasterly trades prevail over the eastern end of the state. A
low pressure system and an associated cold front to the distant
northwest will strengthen winds and shift them to a more
southerly/southeasterly direction Monday through Tuesday.
Localized terrain enhancement around the Big Island could result
in advisory level winds during this time. The winds will gradually
ease Wednesday and Thursday as a front approaches from the
northwest, with moderate to fresh northeast trades filling in
behind the front for the end of the week.

A series of small overlapping north-northeast swells will keep
surf in place along exposed north and east facing shores through
mid week. A small west-northwest swell will bring some small surf
to exposed north and west facing shores Tuesday through Thursday.
A more significant north-northwest swell appears to arrive late in
the week, potentially bringing warning level surf next weekend.

Surf along south facing shores will remain up today, then return
back to seasonable levels Monday through late next week.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Tsamous